IMF: World Economy Forecasted for Slower Growth
Yesterday we reported that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated that the credit crunch could result in $1 trillion in losses. The IMF also reported that world economic growth will slow to 3.7% in 2008 and 2009, 1.25% lower than growth in 2007.
The downturn will be led by the US, which the IMF believes will go into a "mild recession" this year. Growth in the UK will slow sharply to 1.6% in both 2008 and 2009.
The IMF said that the UK economy would be affected by a weakening housing market, the contraction of the financial sector, and the impact on UK exports of weaker growth in the US and Europe.
Its UK forecast is substantially below the Treasury forecast of around 2% growth this year and 2.5% next year made at the time of the March Budget.
The IMF admits that the global downturn might be still more severe than it is currently predicting, and says that there is a one in four chance of a "global recession" when world growth falls below 3%.
The world downturn will be led by problems in the US housing market, but the IMF warns that excessive house price inflation in some European countries, including Spain, Ireland and the UK, has made them more vulnerable to a slowdown.
Published on April 9, 2008
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