Since the issuance of preliminary lost estimates just 24 hours after the Tohoku earthquake, catastrophe modeling firm AIR Worldwide assessed newly available ground motion data and analyzed high-resolution satellite imagery to estimate the footprint of the tsunami that followed the earthquake. Based on these detailed analyses, AIR has revised its insured loss estimate for the Tohoku Earthquake at between 1.5 trillion JPY-2.5 trillion JPY (between $20-$30 billion).
“This is an unprecedented event in the history of seismology and earthquake engineering—never in history has a magnitude 9.0 earthquake been so well recorded instrumentally,” said Dr. Jayanta Guin, senior vice president of research and modeling at AIR Worldwide. “With this update AIR has taken real-time loss estimation to the next level by incorporating an unprecedented quantity of data. By independently estimating the loss due to the tsunami, the combined loss estimate avoids double-counting in the affected areas.”
The combined insured loss estimate is comprised of insured losses from ground-shaking and fire-following of between 910 billion JPY (11 billion USD) and 1.7 trillion JPY ($21 billion), and insured losses from tsunami of between 650 billion JPY ($8.0 billion) and 780 billion JPY ($9.7 billion).
AIR's loss estimate includes payouts from the Japan Earthquake Reinsurance Co., Ltd. (JER) and is net of government recoveries.