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Beyond Wildfire Risk: What the Palisades and Eaton Fires Reveal About Conflagration Exposure

Beyond Wildfire Risk: What the Palisades and Eaton Fires Reveal About Conflagration Exposure

In recent years, many catastrophic fires have been classified as “wildfires.” But two major California events — the Eaton and Palisades Fires — revealed a critical truth: much of the destruction wasn’t caused by burning vegetation. Instead, the fires evolved into wildfire-induced conflagrations, where the primary fuel shifted from forests and brush to homes, buildings, and other man-made structures.

This transition changes how a fire behaves, spreads, and devastates communities — and it also changes how risk must be evaluated. Cotality’s latest analysis of these two events demonstrates that traditional wildfire hazard scoring alone is no longer enough to accurately assess exposure.

When Wildfires Turn Urban: Understanding Conflagration Exposure

A wildfire-induced conflagration occurs when a fire transitions into structure-to-structure ignition. At this stage, factors like building density, construction characteristics, ember travel, wind speed, and urban design become bigger drivers of destruction than vegetation.

These conditions often arise beyond the traditional “wildfire hazard zones,” putting properties previously considered safer at unexpectedly high risk.

Eaton Fire: Low Wildfire Hazard, High Destruction

The Eaton Fire (January 7–21, 2025) burned through more than 9,000 properties — over 6,600 of which were damaged or destroyed. Traditional wildfire models would have overlooked most of them:

Wildfire Risk Score (Pre-Event) Properties in Eaton Perimeter
Low ~71%
Moderate ~9%
High ~11%
Very High ~10%

Yet, Cotality’s Wildfire Conflagration Score told a very different story. Pre-event, about 93% of properties were rated high or very high conflagration hazard, and an estimated 75% were simultaneously low-to-moderate wildfire hazard but high conflagration hazard.

This explains how a region with largely “low wildfire risk” suffered massive losses — the fire transitioned into a conflagration and spread rapidly through densely built environments.

Palisades Fire: Different Vegetation, Similar Outcome

The Palisades Fire showed a more balanced wildfire hazard spread, with vegetation-driven risk playing a larger role:

Wildfire Risk Score (Pre-Event) Properties in Palisades Perimeter
Low ~33%
Moderate ~12%
High ~18%
Very High ~37%

Even here, low wildfire risk did not equal safety. Cotality estimated that 37% of affected properties were low-to-moderate wildfire hazard but high-to-very high conflagration hazard — threatening nearly 4,000 structures.

After the fire, nearly 48% of destroyed properties had been classified as low-to-moderate wildfire risk but showed high conflagration exposure.

By combining its Wildfire Risk Score and Wildfire Conflagration Score, Cotality successfully identified 85% of properties that were ultimately impacted.

Why Dual Hazard Scoring Is Now Essential

Risk Factor Traditional Wildfire Models Conflagration Models
Vegetation exposure ✔️
Urban building density ✔️
Ember-driven ignition Limited ✔️
Structure-to-structure fire ✔️
Wind-driven spread in urban zones Limited ✔️

Conclusion: Evaluating properties solely through a wildfire hazard lens overlooks the now-common transition to urban conflagration.

The Broader Pattern: A Nationwide Concern

Since 2020, 10 wildfire-induced conflagration events have destroyed more than 26,000 structures, including the Lahaina, Hawaii (2023), and Marshall, Colorado (2021) fires.

This risk is not just a California issue. In San Diego County alone, traditional wildfire models classify about 84% of properties as low wildfire risk, yet Cotality’s Wildfire Conflagration Model reveals that 14% face elevated conflagration risk — exposure that would go undetected using wildfire metrics alone.

Looking Ahead

Cotality’s analysis proves that wildfire and conflagration hazards must be modeled separately — and evaluated together — to capture the full extent of property-level exposure. As wildfire-induced urban firestorms become more frequent, carriers and risk managers who rely solely on conventional wildfire scoring may underestimate hidden risks across their portfolios. Learn more at Cotality.

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AWS Outage in US-EAST-1 Region Causes Widespread Disruptions Across Major Platforms

AWS Outage in US-EAST-1 Region Causes Widespread Disruptions Across Major Platforms

A large outage linked to Amazon Web Services’ (AWS) US-EAST-1 region in northern Virginia caused significant global disruptions across major websites, apps, and business operations on Monday morning. The incident, rooted in DNS resolution failures within AWS’s DynamoDB application programming interfaces, temporarily rendered numerous cloud-reliant platforms unavailable and highlighted the sensitivity of internet infrastructure to failures in centralized systems.

The event began around 3 a.m. ET, when DNS resolution problems affected the ability of systems to correctly identify the appropriate server endpoints. This triggered cascading failures among services that depend on AWS for data connectivity and operational continuity. By 5:22 a.m., AWS began applying mitigation efforts, and by 6:35 a.m., the company reported that the technical issues had been addressed, although some services continued processing backlogged requests.

Amazon’s own platforms, including its e-commerce site, Ring, and Alexa, experienced interruptions. Additional services impacted included WhatsApp, ChatGPT, Venmo, Epic Games platforms such as Fortnite, several British government sites, and Meta-owned communication tools. Banks, cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, and airlines such as Delta and United reported related operational issues. U.S. consumers faced delays in financial transactions, digital purchases, and routine internet-based tasks, while workers in multiple sectors were unable to access necessary tools and systems.

The outage also contributed to delayed flights, disruptions to factory and business workflows, and challenges for employees reliant on internet-based platforms to perform their jobs. Analysts reported a significant hit to productivity, with essential operations across industries temporarily halted or slowed.

Industry experts assessed the financial toll of the disruption as potentially reaching billions of dollars, with some estimates projecting losses extending into the hundreds of billions when factoring in widespread operational downtime and halted productivity. Observers noted that failures such as DNS misrouting — in which domain names do not correctly resolve to their respective IP addresses — can rapidly affect downstream dependencies due to the interconnected nature of modern cloud architecture.

The incident renewed discussions around the vulnerability of centralized cloud platforms operated by a few dominant providers, including AWS, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud. While centralized infrastructure has standardized cybersecurity measures and improved baseline digital reliability for many organizations, reliance on single cloud regions creates a critical point of failure when outages occur.

AWS has experienced large-scale outages in the past, including a notable service disruption in 2023. Monday’s incident has drawn attention to the role of data integrity and name resolution accuracy in maintaining uptime, as even foundational services such as DNS can cause widespread operational breakdowns when they fail.

The outage has served as a reminder of the fragility of internet-dependent systems and the extent to which key industries, consumer applications, and business operations rely on uninterrupted cloud service availability.

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Multiple Atlantic Storms Veer East, Sparing U.S. Coastline This Season

Multiple Atlantic Storms Veer East, Sparing U.S. Coastline This Season

As reported in The New York Times, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has been marked by a recurring pattern: multiple storms that initially appeared to be heading toward the United States ultimately shifted eastward and moved out to sea. With six weeks remaining in the season, 12 named storms have formed so far — four of which reached hurricane strength. Despite this activity, only one storm, Tropical Storm Chantal, made landfall in the United States, coming ashore in South Carolina in early July. Another system, Tropical Storm Barry, made landfall in Mexico in late June.

Meteorologists attribute this unusual pattern to two primary factors: the location where storms form and the atmospheric forces that steer them. According to John Cangialosi, a senior hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center, the dominant steering influence in the Atlantic is the Bermuda high, a large high-pressure system that typically pushes storms westward across the ocean before curving them north. When this system is strong, it can guide storms toward regions such as Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. However, when the Bermuda high is weak — as it has been during portions of this season — storms tend to turn northward earlier and veer eastward, avoiding U.S. landfall.

This weaker Bermuda high played a notable role in directing Hurricanes Erin, Gabrielle and Humberto, as well as Tropical Storm Jerry, away from land. In some cases, other atmospheric dynamics also contributed. Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at Colorado State University, noted that Tropical Storm Dexter was already positioned within the jet stream, a high-altitude, fast-moving band of air flowing west to east across the North Atlantic. Being embedded in the jet stream caused Dexter to move away from the United States shortly after forming.

In another example, the interaction between multiple systems influenced storm movement. During Hurricane Humberto’s development, its position east of Tropical Storm Imelda weakened the western edge of the Bermuda high. The storms also interacted through a phenomenon known as the Fujiwhara effect, slowly rotating around a shared center point, which helped pull Imelda eastward and away from the U.S.

The point of origin is also significant in determining whether a storm makes landfall. Systems that form farther east in the Atlantic are more likely to encounter pressure systems that guide them north and out to sea, while storms that develop farther west, such as in the Gulf of Mexico or western Caribbean, may have fewer opportunities to avoid land. As the season transitions into late October and November, forecasters expect storm formation to shift farther west, increasing the likelihood of U.S. impacts. However, late-season landfalls are relatively uncommon due to stronger vertical wind shear near the United States, which can disrupt storm intensity.

The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring a developing system that could become the next named storm, though its path and development remain uncertain.

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Stand Raises $35 Million Series B, Expands Into Florida to Cover High-Risk Homes

Stand Raises $35 Million Series B, Expands Into Florida to Cover High-Risk Homes

Stand Insurance has secured $35 million in Series B funding as it prepares to expand its homeowners insurance offerings into Florida, one of the nation’s most catastrophe-exposed markets. The round was led by Eclipse, with participation from existing investors Inspired Capital, Lowercarbon Capital, and Equal Ventures.

Launched in December 2024, Stand focuses on providing homeowners insurance for properties exposed to wildfires, floods, and windstorms — risks that have increasingly strained traditional insurance markets. In just over a year, the San Francisco-based company reports underwriting $1 billion in insured value in California, where it initially launched coverage for wildfire-prone homes.

Expansion Into Florida’s High-Catastrophe Market

With operations established in California, Stand is expanding into Florida, which the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports has experienced 94 separate billion-dollar disasters since 1980. The most recent seven catastrophic events resulted in more than $1 trillion in losses.

Citizens Property Insurance Corporation, Florida’s state-run insurer of last resort, currently holds nearly $300 billion in exposure — highlighting the scale and volatility of the market.

According to Realtor.com’s 2025 Housing and Climate Risk Report, 26.1% of U.S. homes — valued at approximately $12.7 trillion — face exposure to at least one severe or extreme climate risk such as hurricanes, wildfires, or floods. Southern metropolitan areas rank among the most vulnerable and expensive, with Miami cited as the most at-risk metro area based on premium-to-market value ratios, followed by New Orleans.

A Mitigation-Focused Insurance Model

Stand positions its model around resilience and mitigation. Coverage is linked to property upgrades aimed at reducing risk from wind, fire, and flood. The company uses physics-based modeling — first applied to wildfire risk and now extended to wind exposure — to assess how structures withstand extreme weather events. Artificial intelligence and proactive risk mitigation strategies are also part of its underwriting approach.

Dan Preston, co-founder and CEO of Stand, stated that the company aims to align insurance with efforts to harden homes against catastrophic events.

Market Conditions Driving Demand

Over the past decade, weather-related catastrophes have resulted in an average of $146 billion in annual damages across the United States. During this time, insurance options have diminished in high-risk states such as California, Florida, and Texas, as many carriers have exited or stopped renewing policies due to escalating exposure.

As large insurers withdraw from regions facing frequent disasters, hundreds of thousands of homeowners have experienced policy cancellations or non-renewals.

Aidan Madigan-Curtis, partner at Eclipse and Stand board director, noted that U.S. weather disasters have caused over $1.4 trillion in losses during the past 10 years, with less than half of those losses insured. Eclipse contributed $30 million to the Series B round.

Backing and Market Position

Before the latest round, Stand launched with $30 million in funding from Inspired Capital, Lowercarbon, Equal Ventures, and Convective Capital, supported by top-tier reinsurers and an AM Best A- rating.

The company’s leadership team includes veterans across insurance, technology, and applied science. Stand emphasizes claims management performance and customer service as part of its positioning within catastrophe-prone markets.

With operations expanded to both California and Florida, Stand is targeting continued growth in areas where insurance availability has become increasingly limited.

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