RAND: Current and Future Exposure of Infrastructure in the U.S. to Natural Hazards

Population growth and shifts, particularly those on the coasts, drive demand for new infrastructure, and, as a result, increase the exposure of infrastructure to natural hazards. These natural hazard exposures are projected to be larger and more uncertain in the future because of the effects of sea level rise and projected changes in temperature and precipitation patterns. Thus, incorporating natural hazard risk assessment into infrastructure planning is becoming both increasingly important and challenging.

This report summarizes insights we have gained about the exposures to U.S. infrastructure from natural hazards now and in the future. Our analysis identifies regions in the country where infrastructure may be uniquely exposed to a complex set of natural hazards. In those regions, our analysis highlights the types of infrastructure that are exposed and the hazards that put them at risk. Our analysis also reveals where infrastructure exposures may be expected to change most dramatically. Finally, our analysis reveals where infrastructure exposures remain most uncertain and where new data and analysis would be most valuable. Each of these findings can inform federal efforts to improve infrastructure and resilience planning.

Key Findings

• Infrastructure exposure to natural hazards is expected to increase - and, in some cases, increase substantially - across the continental United States.
• Infrastructure in some areas of the country currently faces disproportionate exposure to natural hazards, and this exposure is likely to increase in the future as a result of climate change.

Recommendations

• Infrastructure and community resilience efforts should incorporate potential impacts from climate change and potential increases in exposure to natural hazards.
• More granular information is needed about specific natural hazard exposure and the specific infrastructure in a community to respond effectively to climate change-induced natural hazard exposure changes.
• Addressing issues of planning effectively and comprehensively to improve resilience against current and future exposure to high-intensity natural hazards will require multifaceted efforts that include collecting descriptive information from and about communities, improving scientific knowledge about hazard phenomena, and developing tools and institutions to plan mitigation strategies for the complex and uncertain array of natural hazards that do and may increasingly threaten communities across the nation.