Mortgage Defaults and Debt Problems Biggest Immediate Threats to US Economy

According to the National Association for Business Economics survey, the combined risk of mortgage defaults and heavy debt loads has overtaken terrorism as the biggest short-term threat to the U.S. economy.

Published on August 27, 2007

Nearly one-third of the survey respondents listed debt-related problems as their top worry: About 18% cited the effects of subprime-loan defaults and 14% listed excessive household or corporate debt.

Of the 258 members responding, about 20% listed defense concerns and the possible economic disruption due to terrorism at the top of their list, down from 35% in the group's March survey. Energy prices were the top-cited risk among 13% of the group, which largely includes economists working at U.S. corporations or with think tanks and universities.

Collected from July 24 to Aug. 14, the polls reflect concerns about the turmoil spreading through equity and debt markets in recent weeks. Defaults tied to riskier home loans soared this year, devaluing mortgage-backed securities and spurring a pullback from many lenders. The ensuing crisis has spurred worries of cutbacks in business and consumer spending.