According to Keefe Bruyette & Woods Inc. in its third-quarter insurer earnings preview issued October 10, commercial property/casualty prices will continue to increase.
Analysts said they expect pricing pressures to remain “modestly upward.” U.S. commercial lines appear to be up in the 6-7 percent range and personal lines are rising in the 2-3 percent range. In reinsurance, the expectation for January 1 is generally flat, including catastrophes lines, despite what is shaping up to be a cat-free year, analysts said.
The KBW analysts also said they expect reserve releases to continue to slow.
“A year ago in (third quarter 2011), we saw 5.3% of reserve release benefit, and we expect at least a point of deterioration from that level,” they said.