According to the GCACIC research brief:
*A total of 31 tropical cyclones, considered a normal level of activity for the Western North Pacific, are forecast for the region this year.
*Of this total, 11 are forecasted to develop into tropical storms and 16 are forecasted to become typhoons.
*An estimated seven tropical cyclones are predicted to make landfall along the South China coast (above the normal activity level of five).
*Japan and Korea may also experience an above-normal number of tropical cyclones making landfall, with six predicted to impact the region during the 2011 season (versus the average of four).
GCACIC’s statistical predictions are based on predictors drawn from a large group of indices that represent the atmospheric and oceanographic conditions from 2010 to the spring of 2011. The most prominent predictors include the proxies for El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the extent of the subtropical ridge and the intensity of the India-Burma trough.
Professor Johnny Chan, Director, Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, commented that all the predictors included in our analysis indicate an overall normal level of tropical cyclone activity for the Western North Pacific in 2011, which will likely be an ENSO-neutral year. It is interesting to note that in the last 13 years, only two of them – 2001 and 2004 – have seen above-normal activity, with most years since 1998 experiencing below-normal activity.”
David Lightfoot, Head of GC AnalyticsSM – International, Guy Carpenter & Company, said: “Through GCACIC, we will continue to enhance our understanding of climate-related perils occurring in the Asia-Pacific region. Forecasting tropical cyclone activity is one of the ways that the Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre helps the industry prepare for one of the region’s major recurring catastrophic risks.”