According to the Aon forecast, health plan rates will increase 16.4 percent for HMOs, 16.1 percent for POS plans, 15.7 percent for PPO plans and 17.2 percent for Indemnity plans. These double-digit health care increases are approximately eight times the annual general inflation rate of 2.1 percent most recently reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Interestingly, health plan trend rates now vary little by plan type. In the past, HMO and POS trend rates were several percentage points lower than PPO and Indemnity trend rates.
"This will be the fifth year of double digit increases in health care costs. Faced with rising expenses, we expect companies to increase co-pays and premiums for employees. In addition, we expect employers to continue to explore a range of new options such as consumer-driven health plans, disease management programs, tiered hospital networks, pharmacy coalitions, health promotion incentives and others," said Bill Sharon, senior vice president in the Tampa office of Aon Consulting's health & welfare practice.
The migration from major medical plans to HMOs and POS plans in the late 1980s and early 1990s was spurred to contain costs, but managed care plans with small co-payments are no longer the answer for employers who serve as plan sponsors. The trend is toward plan designs that require more cost sharing by the consumer.
It is worth noting that the Aon forecast predicts year-over-year increases before plan design modifications. Sharon continued, "Companies will, in the coming months, need to make some serious decisions about the design of the health plans they intend to offer their employees in 2004."
Rate Table
The trend rates shown below represent national averages and are the predicted increase in claims cost. Trend increases for specific plans may vary from these trend rates due to regional cost variations, plan design and demographics. These trend rates apply to an active workforce. Trend rates for post-retirement health coverage might be higher due to the higher percentage of claims associated with the use of prescription drugs and the leveraging affect of Medicare.
Rate Increase (With Rx) Rate Increase (Without Rx)
Medical
HMO 16.4% 14.7%
POS 16.1% 14.5%
PPO 15.7% 14.4%
Indemnity 17.2% 16.4%
Dental
DHMO 4.8%
PPO 7.6%
Indemnity 7.6%
Pharmacy 17.7%
Vision 3.8%
Aon Corporation (NYSE:AOC - News) is a holding company that is comprised of a family of insurance brokerage, consulting and insurance underwriting subsidiaries. Aon Consulting is among the top global human resources consulting firms, with 2002 revenues of greater than $1 billion and 7,800 employees in 140 offices throughout the world. Aon Consulting delivers integrated consulting solutions to help clients with employee benefits, compensation and rewards, communication, human resources outsourcing, talent recruitment and selection, and process redesign.