The model, which was recently certified by the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology, incorporates improved knowledge of the full structure of hurricanes, including the development of the storm footprint over time, the rate of the decrease in wind speed moving away from the eye of a hurricane, and the relationship between upper-level and surface winds.
Significant enhancements have also been made to the damage estimation component of the model. AIR analyzed detailed claims data from recent storms; researched the evolution of building codes, building materials, construction practices and their impact on building vulnerability; and looked at recent damage survey data and engineering studies and structural calculations.
The model explicitly captures the evolution of building codes and their enforcement across all hurricane states, which results in more detailed modeling of spatial and temporal variations in damageability, the company says. In addition, it adds, the model for the vulnerability of individual buildings better captures the impact of interrelated building characteristics such as roof age, roof type, window protection, and glass percentage. The new vulnerability component also incorporates region-specific “unknown” damage functions (for use when a building’s construction type is not known) and significantly enhanced capabilities for modeling complex industrial facilities, with unique damage functions for more than 400 industrial components.
“This update to the AIR U.S. hurricane model is the culmination of more than three years of research by AIR’s sizable team of scientists and engineers,” Dr. Peter Dailey, assistant vice president and director of atmospheric science at AIR Worldwide, says in a statement. “The updated model provides a state-of-the-art view of U.S. hurricane risk that will enable insurers, reinsurers, brokers and investors in insurance-linked securities to quantify and manage their risk more effectively.”
Currently available in Version 12.0 of CLASIC/2, CATRADER, and CATStation catastrophe risk management systems, other key highlights of AIR 12.0 include updates to the AIR Tropical Cyclone Model for the Caribbean, AIR U.S. Hurricane Model for Offshore Assets, AIR Extratropical Cyclone Model for Europe, AIR Tropical Cyclone Model for Mexico, and AIR Earthquake Model for the United States; support for 64-bit versions of Windows Server 2008, Windows 7, and Windows XP to provide additional performance over 32-bit versions; and reporting module updates.