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Survey: Market Experts, Economists Don't See Housing Prices Recovering in Next Five Years

Source: CNBC

Posted on 23 Mar 2011

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A new report from Robert Shiller's firm, MacroMarkets, found that of 111 housing market experts and economists surveyed, nearly half foresee a double-dip in home prices happening this year, "and not a single panelist expects national home prices to recover to the pre-bubble trend in the coming five years."

In December, only 15 percent projected a new post-crash low would materialize for home prices. We are now less than 1 percent away from that mark, according to the survey.

"Overall, the sentiment among our expert panel regarding the U.S. housing market outlook continues to deteriorate," writes Shiller. "Now they are expecting only a weak recovery, and even that is not until 2013."

This report comes on the same day that Fannie Mae's chief economist put out a report claiming uncertainty in Japan and trouble in Libya will directly affect housing's recovery, specifically citing rising gas prices.

"We expect home sales to remain soft in the near term, given uninspiring leading indicators," notes Doug Duncan. It's really uninspired and fearful consumers, though, that will stunt the recovery.

They're looking at the weakness in the economy, now battered by our relationship with Japan and a rise in oil prices, and they're asking, is this a good time to borrow $200,000 to buy a house? I don't think so," concludes Duncan.



Larry Neilson Mar 23 2011 2:54PM Report Abuse
Aren't real estate cycles typically 7-8 years? We've been in this recession for 3 plus this new estimate of 5 that makes 8. Right on time.
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