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Guy Carpenter Predicts Below-Normal Storm Activity in Pacific

Source: Guy Carpenter,

Posted on 05 May 2010

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A briefing issued today by the Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre (GCACIC), a joint initiative of Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC, and the City University of Hong Kong, concludes that tropical cyclone activity in the Western North Pacific region is likely to be at below-normal levels through the remainder of 2010, as the mild El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) condition that developed in 2009 weakens.


• The briefing forecasts a total of 28 tropical cyclones for 2010 in the Western North Pacific, slightly below the average of 31.

• Tropical storm and typhoon activity is also expected to be modest, with most predictors indicating 24 to 26 events – again, below the average of 27.

• Though ENSO and non-ENSO predictors differ slightly for the number of anticipated typhoons, the average is 16, which is near the normal number.

A copy of the full briefing can be found on at: 2010-predictions-of-seasonal-tropical-cyclone-activity-over-the-western-north-pacific/

Professor Johnny Chan, Director, Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, said “With the apparent weakening of the El Niño phenomenon and the ocean conditions in the equatorial Pacific tending towards normal, the coming tropical cyclone season in the western North Pacific should be one typical of a ‘post-El Nino’ situation, which generally has below-normal activity. We are therefore predicting a below-normal season of tropical cyclone activity in the Western NorthPacific.”

“Guy Carpenter and the GCACIC are committed to furthering the science involved in understanding tropical cyclone formation in the Western North Pacific. This report, as well as the GCACIC's forthcoming tropical cyclone landfall prediction report, will help the industry prepare for the upcoming typhoon season in Asia," said David Lightfoot, Managing Director, Guy Carpenter & Company.